As a Conservative Candidate for Dover & Deal in 2024, Chairman of Folkestone & Hythe Conservative Association, and Chairman of Conservative Friends of Education, I’ve had a front-row seat to our party’s historic and devastating collapse in the 2024 General Election. This election was a wake-up call, a brutal reminder that we have lost touch with the very people who once propelled us to power. It’s time to reflect, understand, and, most importantly, act.

The magnitude of our defeat cannot be overstated. From the once secure seats in our traditional heartlands to the pivotal constituencies of the Red Wall, the message from voters was clear: the Conservative Party, as it currently stands, no longer represents their interests or aspirations. Our support base, which had expanded impressively in the wake of the Brexit referendum, has eroded, leaving us with the lowest number of seats in our history.

This experience has been particularly poignant for me, standing as a candidate in Dover & Deal, a constituency that exemplifies the challenges and opportunities our party faces. Dover & Deal, with its rich history and strategic importance, was a microcosm of the broader national trends. Despite our efforts, the response on the doorstep was often one of disappointment and disillusionment. Voters felt that their concerns were not being addressed and that the party had drifted away from the core values that once defined it.

As the Chairman of Folkestone & Hythe Conservative Association, I have witnessed firsthand the grassroots frustration and the erosion of trust within our ranks. Dedicated volunteers and long-time supporters expressed a sense of betrayal, feeling that the party had become disconnected from the realities of everyday life. This sentiment was echoed across the country, where local associations struggled to galvanise support in the face of mounting criticism and dwindling enthusiasm.

The 2024 General Election has been a sobering experience, but it also presents an opportunity for renewal. We must seize this moment to rebuild our connection with the electorate, particularly those who feel left behind by recent developments. This requires a comprehensive reassessment of our policies, leadership, and communication strategies. It’s not just about regaining lost ground; it’s about re-establishing the Conservative Party as a force for positive change, grounded in the values of service, integrity, and accountability.

How Did We Get Here?

Reconnecting with Our Members

In 2019, we achieved a commanding 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson, capturing the Red Wall and appealing to a new coalition of voters. This coalition included working-class, non-graduate, older, and pro-Brexit supporters from small and medium towns, the industrial heartlands, and coastal communities. This realignment was a golden opportunity, but we squandered it. To understand our path to recovery, we must first reconnect with our members.

1. Rebuilding Trust and Engagement: Our members are the backbone of our party, and their disillusionment reflects broader concerns. We must initiate a transparent dialogue, acknowledging past mistakes and outlining clear, actionable plans for the future. Regular town hall meetings, member surveys, and feedback loops will ensure that our members feel heard and valued.

2. Empowering Local Associations: Local associations are crucial for grassroots mobilisation. We need to provide them with the resources and autonomy to tailor strategies to their unique constituencies. This means more funding, better training for volunteers, and a stronger emphasis on local issues that resonate with the community.

3. Revamping Leadership Training: Effective leadership is essential for reconnecting with our base. We must invest in leadership development programmes that focus on empathy, communication, and strategic planning. This will help local leaders better understand and address the concerns of their constituents.

4. Enhancing Communication Channels: Clear and consistent communication is vital. We need to improve our internal communication channels to ensure that members are always up-to-date with party policies, campaign strategies, and key messages. This can be achieved through regular newsletters, webinars, and an updated, interactive party website.

Reconnecting with Voters

The voters who rallied behind us in 2019 did so because they believed we would deliver on Brexit, control immigration, and revitalise left-behind regions. Over the past five years, we failed to meet these expectations. Our inability to control the borders, reduce legal immigration, cut taxes, and tackle woke ideology has left these voters feeling betrayed. To win back their support, we must focus on the following:

1. Addressing Core Issues: We need to return to the issues that matter most to our core voters. This means taking decisive action on immigration control, tax reduction, and economic revitalisation of neglected areas. Policies must be clear, concrete, and consistently communicated.

2. Improving Transparency and Accountability: Voters have lost trust due to a perceived lack of transparency and accountability in our leadership. We must commit to higher standards of governance, transparency in decision-making, and holding our leaders accountable to rebuild credibility.

3. Modernising Campaign Strategies: The digital world has eclipsed traditional media in influencing public opinion. Our campaign strategies must adapt to this reality. We need a robust digital presence, utilising social media platforms effectively, creating engaging content, and leveraging data analytics to target our messages accurately.

4. Localised Campaigns: National policies must be complemented by localised campaign efforts. Understanding and addressing local issues will make our campaigns more relevant and impactful. Each constituency should have tailored strategies that reflect the unique concerns and priorities of its voters.

5. Engaging Younger Voters: The crossover age at which voters are more likely to support us has risen dramatically. We must develop policies that resonate with younger voters, focusing on issues such as affordable housing, employment opportunities, and quality education. Engaging with youth through digital platforms and youth-oriented initiatives will be crucial.

6. Building a Stronger Ground Game: Grassroots mobilisation is key to winning elections. We need to rebuild our network of local canvassers and volunteers, providing them with the training and resources needed to effectively engage with voters door-to-door and at community events.

7. Leveraging Influencers and Advocates: Partnering with respected community leaders, influencers, and advocates who can vouch for our policies and values will help in rebuilding trust and broadening our appeal. Their endorsement can bridge the gap between the party and sceptical voters.

Moving Forward

The path to recovery will not be easy, but it is achievable. By reconnecting with both our members and voters, we can rebuild a strong, united, and effective Conservative Party. It’s time to listen, learn, and lead with integrity, ensuring that we once again become the party that truly represents the interests and aspirations of the British people.

The Rise of Reform UK

Nigel Farage and Reform UK capitalised on our failures, emerging as a powerful alternative for disillusioned pro-Brexit voters. Farage, who has been a persistent thorn in our side, adeptly captured the hearts of those who felt let down by our broken promises on immigration and border control. Reform UK’s share of the vote increased by 13 points, causing enormous losses for us in key constituencies.

Farage’s success is not just a protest vote. It’s a clear signal that a significant portion of our electorate has found a new home. These voters share a coherent worldview: they are deeply patriotic, concerned about mass immigration, and sceptical of the liberal elite. Farage’s ability to tap into these sentiments has made Reform UK a formidable force in British politics.

Reform’s 2024 London Mayor Candidate, Howard Cox, was my Reform opponent in Dover & Deal. He’s like that rogue uncle you only see at Christmas time: he metaphorically has a few drinks, upsets the right people, and then walks off into the sunset with a twinkle in his eye. While I do not blame Howard or Reform for my loss, it’s worth noting that our combined votes would have easily beaten the Labour candidate. Dover & Deal is a centre-right constituency and now has a left-wing MP.

This shift underscores a critical issue: our failure to retain the post-Brexit coalition. Farage and Reform UK have adeptly filled the void left by our party’s shortcomings, particularly in areas like Dover & Deal. They have become the new standard-bearers for a significant segment of the electorate that we once claimed as our own.

Understanding the Appeal of Reform UK

Reform UK’s rise is rooted in its clear, consistent messaging on key issues that resonate with voters who feel ignored or betrayed by the Conservative Party. Their focus on strong border control, reducing immigration, and challenging the liberal elite speaks directly to the concerns of many who previously supported us. Farage’s ability to present himself as a relatable, no-nonsense figure further enhances his appeal.

In constituencies like Dover & Deal, where voters are deeply patriotic and conservative, Reform UK’s message found fertile ground. These voters are not merely expressing dissatisfaction; they are actively seeking an alternative that aligns with their values and priorities. Farage has offered them that alternative, positioning Reform UK as a credible and appealing option.

The Consequences for the Conservative Party

The rise of Reform UK has significant implications for the Conservative Party. Our inability to deliver on key promises has driven voters into the arms of Farage and his party. This is not just a loss of votes; it is a loss of trust and credibility. As a result, traditional Conservative strongholds like Dover & Deal are now represented by left-wing MPs, fundamentally altering the political landscape.

Moreover, the success of Reform UK suggests that there is a substantial and growing segment of the electorate that feels alienated by mainstream politics. These voters are looking for representation that reflects their concerns about national sovereignty, cultural identity, and economic security. Farage has tapped into these sentiments, and unless we can address them, we risk becoming increasingly irrelevant.

Moving Forward

To counter the rise of Reform UK and reclaim our lost voters, the Conservative Party must take decisive action. This involves not only addressing the specific issues that have driven voters away but also rebuilding the trust and credibility that we have lost. We must present clear, actionable policies on immigration, border control, and economic revitalisation, and communicate these effectively to the electorate.

Additionally, we need to engage with the concerns of voters in a meaningful way. This means listening to their grievances, understanding their needs, and demonstrating a genuine commitment to addressing them. We must show that we are not just a party of rhetoric but one of action and results.

Reform UK’s rise is a stark reminder of what happens when a party loses touch with its base. It is a call to action for the Conservative Party to reconnect with the electorate, rebuild trust, and re-establish itself as the party that truly represents the interests and aspirations of the British people.

By learning from our mistakes and taking proactive steps to address them, we can begin the process of rebuilding and revitalising the Conservative Party. This will not be easy, but it is essential if we are to regain our position as the dominant force in British politics.

Labour’s Static Vote and the Future of British Politics

While Labour has won a commanding majority, their share of the vote in England remained relatively static. This suggests that their victory owes more to our collapse than to a surge in their support. Labour’s share of the vote only increased by 0.6%, highlighting that this was an election of disillusionment rather than enthusiasm.

The turnout was the second lowest since the 1880s, reflecting widespread disillusionment with both major parties. The combined vote share for the Conservatives and Labour has crashed to the lowest level since the modern two-party system began. This indicates a broader crisis of confidence in our political system.

Understanding Labour’s Position

Labour’s commanding majority in the 2024 election masks a deeper issue: their inability to significantly grow their base. Despite their victory, the slight increase in their vote share points to a lack of genuine enthusiasm among the electorate. This situation is not a ringing endorsement of Labour’s policies or leadership but rather a reflection of voters’ discontent with the Conservative Party.

Labour’s success, therefore, should be viewed in the context of our failures. The dramatic collapse of Conservative support created a vacuum that Labour could fill, but not because they presented a compelling alternative. Instead, it was a case of voters rejecting the status quo without wholeheartedly embracing a new vision.

The Implications of Low Turnout

The historically low turnout further underscores the disillusionment pervading British politics. When nearly half of eligible voters choose not to participate, it signals a profound disengagement from the political process. This apathy is a damning indictment of the major parties’ inability to inspire or mobilise the electorate.

Low turnout reflects a lack of confidence in the ability of either party to address the pressing issues facing the country. It suggests that many voters do not see a meaningful difference between the options presented to them or believe that their vote will lead to substantive change. This pervasive disillusionment is a challenge that both Labour and the Conservatives must confront if they hope to revitalise their respective bases and restore faith in the political system.

A Broader Crisis of Confidence

The combined vote share for the Conservatives and Labour plummeting to historic lows is indicative of a broader crisis of confidence in our political system. Voters are increasingly turning to smaller parties or choosing to abstain altogether, signalling a desire for alternatives outside the traditional two-party framework. This shift suggests that the established parties must adapt or risk further erosion of their support.

For the Conservatives, this crisis offers an opportunity to rethink our approach and re-engage with the electorate. We must address the root causes of voter disillusionment by presenting clear, actionable policies that resonate with the public’s concerns. This includes not only addressing issues like immigration and economic inequality but also rebuilding trust through transparency and accountability.

The Battle for Political Survival

This is not just a battle for the soul of the Conservative Party; it’s a battle for our political survival. The stakes have never been higher. With Nigel Farage and Reform UK now a significant force in Westminster, we must act swiftly and decisively to rebuild our coalition and restore the trust of the British people.

Reinventing the Conservative Party

The Conservative Party must reinvent itself. We need a clear, compelling vision that addresses the real concerns of the British people. This vision should be rooted in our core values of individual freedom, enterprise, and national sovereignty while adapting to the changing political landscape. Here’s how we can achieve this:

1. Re-establish Core Values: We must reconnect with our foundational principles. Emphasising individual freedom, promoting enterprise, and protecting national sovereignty will help us resonate with our traditional base while appealing to new supporters.

2. Policy Reformation: We need to present bold and actionable policies that address key issues such as immigration, economic inequality, and education reform. These policies should be designed to benefit all segments of society, ensuring that no one feels left behind.

3. Effective Communication: Clear, honest, and consistent communication is vital. We must convey our policies and values effectively, using modern platforms to reach a broader audience. This includes engaging with the public through social media, town hall meetings, and community events.

Respect and Recognition for Voters

As we move forward, it’s essential to treat our voters with the respect and recognition they deserve. They are not just statistics; they are the backbone of our nation. By listening to their concerns and delivering on our promises, we can rebuild trust and restore our standing. Here’s how we can achieve this:

1. Genuine Engagement: We need to actively listen to our voters’ concerns, understanding their needs and aspirations. This involves more than just campaigning; it requires ongoing dialogue and interaction with the community.

2. Transparency and Accountability: To regain trust, we must hold ourselves to the highest standards of transparency and accountability. This means being open about our plans, acknowledging our mistakes, and demonstrating a commitment to ethical governance.

3. Delivering on Promises: Our voters need to see real, tangible results. We must follow through on our commitments and ensure that our policies lead to meaningful improvements in their lives.

Moving Forward

In conclusion, the 2024 General Election has been a wake-up call for the Conservative Party. It’s a stark reminder that we cannot take our supporters for granted. We must learn from our mistakes, re-engage with our core voters, and present a vision that resonates with the British people. This is not just about winning elections; it’s about securing the future of our party and our country.

By committing to these principles and taking decisive action, we can rebuild the Conservative Party from the ground up. The path ahead is challenging, but with determination and a clear vision, we can emerge stronger and more united than ever. Let us rise to this challenge and ensure that the Conservative Party once again becomes the leading force for positive change in Britain.